Future Of Browsers - Business Model Perspective
dave at userland.com
Wed Aug 26 17:10:37 BST 1998
>>FACT: There are so many people who do not have computers but do have
televisions, will cause the following to occur.
The web may be more ubiquitous than you think:
Study: 1/3 of U.S. adults on Internet
Women over 50 among fastest-growing group online
At 09:42 AM 8/26/98 -0500, you wrote:
>The "Future of Browsers" from a business model perspective.
>FACT: There are so many people who do not have computers
>but do have televisions, will cause the following to occur.
>1.) Mass in numbers = massive potential market demand for information
>2.) They all want email like everyone else.
>3.) They want access to web information like everyone else.
>4.) The "Industry Cable and Telephone" entities will compete
> with each other to tap that market and deliver a
> hardware solution that is not a traditional desktop.
> Omaha, NE has 2 true service providers to everyone's
> house. COX cable is 30 percent complete in true fiber
> to the user, and will be offering all the services
> (local phone, long distance, 2way-cable, xDSL internet).
> U.S.West is the local teleco and has experimented w/
> fiber in West Omaha and gave it up because of their
> shortsightedness. But U.S.West can't afford to lose
> the Omaha subscriber base so will be forced to compete.
>6.) The above example will provide a model for all the others
> to ramp up high speed internet access, using HDTV set top
> boxes that will run a new OS. Which will cause developers
> to target that OS at mass quantities.
>7.) This will cause a major vacuum and we all know what that
>8.) Therefore the Future of Browsers is still transforming
> itself until you have fulfilled all potential web access
> and email demand. The OS and browser that captures the most
> customer base will absolutely affect the future browser structure.
>9.) True real-time 30 fps video/audio consumption and production will
> occur within that hardware structure and standards will be pushed
> out and all browsers will conform to item #9.
>10.) Digital T.V.'s will be physically separated out into 2 parts.
> The tuner slash computer and the display. Allowing owners to
> upgrade their tuner slash computer while keeping their 16x9 digital
> thin panel display's.
>11.) Currently MPEG2 encoders/decoders can deliver item #9 at 6.5MB/sec.
> Current uses are distance learning....current cost of hardware
> MPEG2 encoder/decoders is $15,000. per channel. High end Pentium II's
> can decode on the fly, so Pentium II class desktop tuner/computer's
> can sub for the decoder's.
>12.) This will allow home's and buildings and vehicles and individuals
> to be permanently linked to the net, and allow people to interface
> in real time to each other, their home, their business, no matter
> where they are.
>13.) Finally, the information revolution will have peaked out and
> information appliances will be as common and as mundane as the touch
> tone telephone is to us today.
>14.) And all the accumulation of wealth that comes from being a proactive
> information market miner will be exhausted, similarly as the Gold Rush
> day's of the later 19th century.
>This is how I see the overall view of the future of browsers....within that
>overall framework...you all doing all the current XML research will provide
>the structure for those who use XML to create content for the current stage
>of the ongoing information revolution...
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